IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rmn/wpaper/201710.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Adjustment Paths in a Monetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

What to do when a country experiences a sudden stop in capital inflows and has to adjust externally? Sticky wages make adjustment to an external imbalance more difficult within a monetary union. Periods of high unemployment are usually necessary to achieve the required real depreciation (internal devaluation). Gradual adjustment is usually recommended to distribute the output and employment cost over time. But a gradual adjustment also implies that current account deficits persist for longer, leading to higher debt, and higher debt-service costs. The optimal path of price and wage adjustment thus involves a trade-off between the pain (unemployment) and the gain (lower debt) from adjustment. A simple model shows the determinants of the optimal path in terms of deeper parameters, such as the slope of the Phillips curve and the degree of openness. The rules for the resolution of future crises within the euro area should take this into account. Gradual adjustment is not always the optimal choice, and sometimes the alternative path of introducing abrupt changes produces the desired results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Optimal Adjustment Paths in a Monetary Union," ROME Working Papers 201710, ROME Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rome-net.org/RePEc/rmn/wpaper/rome-wp-2017-10.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    3. Sylvester Eijffinger, 2008. "How much inevitable US-Euro Area interdependence is there in monetary policy?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(6), pages 341-348, November.
    4. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach," CEPS Papers 12109, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    7. John Beirne & Jana Gieck, 2014. "Interdependence and Contagion in Global Asset Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 639-659, September.
    8. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
    9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 331-367.
    10. Raddant, Matthias & Kenett, Dror, 2016. "Interconnectedness in the global financial market," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145560, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Rey, Hélène, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    13. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    14. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 16/108, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2014. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1101-1127, August.
    16. repec:tpr:asiaec:v:15:y:2016:i:3:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Carolina Osorio & Esteban Vesperoni, 2015. "Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and the Euro Area," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 15/01, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Kerstin Bernoth & Philipp J. König, 2016. "Implications for the Euro Area of Divergent Monetary Policy Stances by the Fed and the ECB - The Role of Financial Spillovers: In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 107, number pbk107.
    19. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2016. "Monetary Policy Spillovers across the Pacific when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, pages 1-27.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Greece and the Troika – Lessons from International Best Practice Cases of Successful Price (and Wage) Adjustment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 177-195, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speed of adjustment; openness; Phillips curve; price and wage adjustment; internal devaluation; policy complementarities;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • P11 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Albrecht F. Michler). General contact details of provider: http://www.rome-net.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.