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Inflation-Output Tradeoff as Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization

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  • Alon Binyamini
  • Assaf Razin

Abstract

The paper provides an integrated analysis of globalization effects on the inflation-output tradeoff and monetary policy in the New-Keynesian framework. The prediction of the analysis is threefold. First, labor, goods, and capital mobility flatten the Phillips curve, the tradeoff between inflation and activity. Second, the same globalization forces lead the welfare-based monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations, and at the same time, more benign with respect to the output-gap fluctuations. Third, the equilibrium response of inflation to supply and demand shocks is more moderate, and the response of the output gap to these shocks is more pronounced, when the economy opens up; under such welfare-based monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2008. "Inflation-Output Tradeoff as Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 14379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14379 Note: IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    2. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2008. "Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1398-1423, November.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment of Openness and Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652.
    5. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    8. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October.
    9. Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 255-274.
    12. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2008. "Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1398-1423, November.
    13. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2006. "Sticky Borders," NBER Working Papers 12095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 327-347.
    15. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 171-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Charles Bean, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(1), pages 57-73, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mardi Dungey, 2010. "Discussion of The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Piero Ferri, 2011. "Macroeconomics of Growth Cycles and Financial Instability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14260, April.
    4. Watson, Anna, 2016. "Trade openness and inflation: The role of real and nominal price rigidities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 137-169.
    5. Assaf Razin & Steven Rosefielde, 2016. "Israel and the 1990-2015 Global Developments: Riding with the Global Flows and Weathering the Storms," NBER Working Papers 22567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2009-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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