US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore
The paper analyzes how globalization forces induce monetary authorities, guided in their policies by the welfare criterion of a representative household, to put a greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. We demonstrate that with capital account liberalization the representative household is able to smooth fluctuations in consumption, and thus becomes relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the output gap. With trade liberalization the economy tends to specialize in the production of relatively few varieties of goods. The specialization in production as a result of trade openness increases the distortion originating from fluctuations in the inflation rate. Therefore, policymakers (guided by efficiency considerations) become more aggressive on inflation and less responsive to the output gap when trade and financial openness increases. We provide evidence on the effect on preferences towards fluctuations in the output gap and in inflation of trade and capital openness, which supports the theory predictions.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong|
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball, 1993.
"What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?,"
NBER Working Papers
4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Romer, 1991.
"Openness and inflation: theory and evidence,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Loungani, P. & Eazin, A. & Yuen, C.W., 1996.
"Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff,"
38-96, Tel Aviv.
- Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 255-274, February.
- Prakash Loungani & Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 1997. "Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," International Finance Discussion Papers 577, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1997. "Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CEPR Discussion Papers 1577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2000. "Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," IMF Working Papers 00/87, International Monetary Fund.
- Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-52, May.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
- David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment of Openness and Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652.
- Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998.
"The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy,"
98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
- Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Should Capital Controls be Banished?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 89-142.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:102005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.