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US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

Author

Listed:
  • Assaf Razin

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Tel Aviv University and Cornell University)

  • Prakash Loungani

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The paper analyzes how globalization forces induce monetary authorities, guided in their policies by the welfare criterion of a representative household, to put a greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. We demonstrate that with capital account liberalization the representative household is able to smooth fluctuations in consumption, and thus becomes relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the output gap. With trade liberalization the economy tends to specialize in the production of relatively few varieties of goods. The specialization in production as a result of trade openness increases the distortion originating from fluctuations in the inflation rate. Therefore, policymakers (guided by efficiency considerations) become more aggressive on inflation and less responsive to the output gap when trade and financial openness increases. We provide evidence on the effect on preferences towards fluctuations in the output gap and in inflation of trade and capital openness, which supports the theory predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 102005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:102005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    3. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
    4. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment of Openness and Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652.
    7. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    8. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Should Capital Controls be Banished?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 89-142.
    11. Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 255-274, February.
    12. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
    13. repec:cup:apsrev:v:91:y:1997:i:03:p:531-551_21 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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