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Openness and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff

Standard open economy models predict that openness to trade should exert a positive effect on the slope of the output-inflation tradeoff, or Phillips curve, but such a proposition finds very little support in the existing empirical literature. We propose a new test of this hypothesis based on new measures of the slope of the Phillips curve and more general cross-country regression models. The results provide strong empirical support for the standard theoretical prediction.

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File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2003/W4/OpenOIT.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2003-W04.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 20 Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0304
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Froyen, Richard T. & Waud, Roger N., 1995. "Central bank independence and the output-inflation tradeoff," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 137-149, May.
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  3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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  6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  7. Anthony Yates & Bryan Chapple, 1996. "What Determines the Short-run Output-Inflation Trade-off?," Bank of England working papers 53, Bank of England.
  8. David Hendry, 2000. "Modelling UK Inflation over the Long Run," Economics Series Working Papers 2, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Cristina T. Terra, 1998. "Openness And Inflation: A New Assessment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 641-648, May.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  13. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
  15. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  16. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May.
  18. Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices; Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
  20. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  21. David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment Of Openness And Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652, May.
  22. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  23. Assar Lindbeck, 1997. "The Swedish Experiment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1273-1319, September.
  24. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  26. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  27. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  28. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
  29. Grubb, David B. & Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1983. "Wage rigidity and unemployment in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 11-39.
  30. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
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