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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003

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  • ROBERT J. TETLOW
  • BRIAN IRONSIDE

Abstract

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro-model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. We document the surprisingly large and consequential changes in model properties that occurred during the period from July 1996 to November 2003 and compute optimal Taylor-type rules for each vintage. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the efficacy of purportedly optimal policy rules should not be taken on faith. We also find that previous findings that simple rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:7:p:1533-1561
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    2. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2008. "Inflation-Output Tradeoff as Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 14379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:6:p:1385-1407 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gumbau-Brisa, Fabia & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2013. "An evaluation of the Federal Reserve estimates of the natural rate of unemployment in real time," Working Papers 13-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
    6. Robert J. Tetlow, 2009. "Commentary on The challenges of estimating potential output in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 291-296.
    7. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    8. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy as an Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," Working Papers 232007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Gregory E. Givens, 2017. "Do Data Revisions Matter for DSGE Estimation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1385-1407, September.
    10. Razin, Assaf & Rosefielde, Steven, 2016. "Israel and the 1990-2015 Global Developments: Riding with the Global Flows and Weathering the Storms," CEPR Discussion Papers 11445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    12. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Andrew Levin, 2007. "Comment on "Monetary Policy in Europe vs the US: What Explains the Difference?"," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 533-545 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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