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Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices

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  • Eugenio Gaiotti

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Department)

Abstract

The flattening of the Phillips curve observed in the industrial countries has been attributed to globalisation, while the traditional explanation centres on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive, since macroeconomic data are affected by substantial identification problems. This paper argues that recourse to micro data is needed to identify structural changes in the slope of the Phillips curve. Taking advantage of a unique dataset including about 2,000 Italian firms, the paper tests whether a change in the link between capacity utilisation and prices is confirmed at company level, after controlling for inflation expectations, and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed to globalisation on either the product or the labour market. The answer is negative in all cases. The results do not support the view that the flattening of the Phillips curve is due to globalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio Gaiotti, 2008. "Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 676, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_676_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Heiner Mikosch, 2012. "Sticky Prices, Competition and the Phillips Curve," KOF Working papers 11-294, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Jordi Galí, 2010. "Commentary: Inflation Pressures and Monetary Policy in a Global Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 93-102, March.
    3. Marianna Riggi & Sergio Santoro, 2015. "On the Slope and the Persistence of the Italian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 157-197, March.
    4. Dieppe, Alistair & Ortega, Eva & D'Agostino, Antonello & Karlsson, Tohmas & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & Hurtado, Samuel & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
    5. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2010. "Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Heiner Mikosch, 2013. "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Preisen, Kapazitätsauslastung und Wettbewerb," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(1), pages 91-103, March.
    7. Alfonso Rosolia, 2015. "On the response of Italian wages to the unemployment rate," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 287, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2010. "Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 51-84, March.
    10. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Assessing the development of China's new energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 116-131.
    11. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; globalisation; inflation; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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