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On the Slope and the Persistence of the Italian Phillips Curve

Author

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  • Marianna Riggi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Sergio Santoro

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the determinants of inertia in Italian inflation, estimating a Phillips curve derived from a general equilibrium business-cycle model that allows for intrinsic and extrinsic sources of inflation persistence, along with trend inflation, and that encompasses both nominal and real rigidities as key factors of the output-inflation trade-off. We perform the estimation over two different sub-samples, 1981:Q1–1998:Q4 and 1999:Q1–2012:Q3, to take into account the structural break represented by the starting of the Economic and Monetary Union. We find that in the period between 1999:Q1 and 2012:Q3, the dependence of Italian inflation on its own past diminished and the slope of the Phillips curve dropped relative to the years before 1999. The latter is a consequence of increased strategic complementarity in price setting, due in turn to higher sensitivity of demand elasticity to firms’ relative prices, on top of lower trend inflation and an increase in the average duration of prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Riggi & Sergio Santoro, 2015. "On the Slope and the Persistence of the Italian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 157-197, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2015:q:2:a:5
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    Cited by:

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    3. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    4. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    5. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2014. "Surprise! Euro area inflation has fallen," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 237, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Deev Oleg & Hodula Martin, 2016. "The Long-Run Superneutrality of Money Revised: the Extended European Evidence," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 187-203, September.
    7. Ioana A. Duca & José M. Montero & Marianna Riggi & Roberta Zizza, 2017. "I will survive. Pricing strategies of financially distressed firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1106, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Fabio Busetti & Pietro Cova & Antonio Maria Conti & Filippo Scoccianti & Libero Monteforte & Giordano Zevi & Valentina Aprigliano & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimili, 2014. "The effects of the crisis on production potential and household spending in Italy," Workshop and Conferences 18, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Wille Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 867-887, December.
    10. Tomasz Chmielewski & Andrzej Kocięcki & Tomasz Łyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Stanisławska & Małgorzata Walerych & Ewa Wróbel, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland What do we know in 2019?," NBP Working Papers 329, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    11. Santoro, Sergio & Viviano, Eliana, 2022. "Optimal trend inflation, misallocation and the pass-through of labour costs to prices," Working Paper Series 2761, European Central Bank.
    12. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    13. Kosuke Aoki & Hibiki Ichiue & Tatsushi Okuda, 2019. "Consumers' Price Beliefs, Central Bank Communication, and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-14, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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