A Possible Explanation of the Missing Deflation Puzzle
During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, the fall in inflation was modest. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model allows for time-varying volatility in cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty and accounts for changes in intermediate goods prices. We show that inflation did not fall much because intermediate goods prices were increasing during the Great Recession.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2016|
|Date of revision:||29 Mar 2017|
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- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015.
"Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Chapters,in: Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 19598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1435-1462, November.
- Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2003. "Inflation Targeting: What Inflation Rate to Target?," Emory Economics 0318, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2004. "Inflation targeting: what inflation rate to target?," Working Papers 04-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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