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What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?

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Listed:
  • William Chen
  • Marco Del Negro
  • Michele Lenza
  • Giorgio E. Primiceri
  • Andrea Tambalotti

Abstract

U.S. inflation used to rise during economic booms, as businesses charged higher prices to cope with increases in wages and other costs. When the economy cooled and joblessness rose, inflation declined. This pattern changed around 1990. Since then, U.S. inflation has been remarkably stable, even though economic activity and unemployment have continued to fluctuate. For example, during the Great Recession unemployment reached 10 percent, but inflation barely dipped below 1 percent. More recently, even with unemployment as low as 3.5 percent, inflation remained stuck under 2 percent. What explains the emergence of this disconnect between inflation and unemployment? This is the question we address in “What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?,” published recently in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Suggested Citation

  • William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:88732
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    2. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; unemployment; monetary policy trade-off; VARs; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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