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What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?

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Abstract

U.S. inflation used to rise during economic booms, as businesses charged higher prices to cope with increases in wages and other costs. When the economy cooled and joblessness rose, inflation declined. This pattern changed around 1990. Since then, U.S. inflation has been remarkably stable, even though economic activity and unemployment have continued to fluctuate. For example, during the Great Recession unemployment reached 10 percent, but inflation barely dipped below 1 percent. More recently, even with unemployment as low as 3.5 percent, inflation remained stuck under 2 percent. What explains the emergence of this disconnect between inflation and unemployment? This is the question we address in “What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?,” published recently in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Suggested Citation

  • William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:88732
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago, 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    2. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2024. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: Disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Rodnyansky, Alexander & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Wales, Daniel, 2022. "Product quality, measured inflation and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2680, European Central Bank.
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2024. "The macroeconomy as a random forest," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 401-421, April.
    5. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    6. Martín Uribe, 2020. "Staggered Price Indexation," NBER Working Papers 27657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Clayton, Christopher & Schaab, Andreas, 2022. "A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets," TSE Working Papers 22-1389, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    9. Guirguis, Hany & Cwik, Kelly & DeMauro, Joseph & Suen, Michael, 2024. "Can the Phillips curve provide answers to current high inflation rates," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    10. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rossi, Lorenza, 2021. "Asymmetries in monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    12. Bušs, Ginters & Traficante, Guido, 2025. "The Return of Inflation: Look-Through Policy Under Incomplete Information," Dynare Working Papers 85, CEPREMAP.
    13. Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Oil jump tail risk as a driver of inflation dynamics," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    14. Kristen Tauber & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "A Growth-Augmented Phillips Curve," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(16), pages 1-6, July.
    15. Ignazio Visco, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(2), pages 111-129, September.
    16. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    17. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Brzozowski, Michał & Siwińska-Gorzelak, Joanna, 2024. "Did robots make wages less responsive to unemployment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    19. Haschka, Rouven E., 2024. "Examining the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the U.S.: Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakened?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    20. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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