IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/113326.html

The slope of the Phillips Curve: evidence from U.S. States

Author

Listed:
  • Hazell, Joe
  • Herreño, Juan
  • Nakamura, Emi
  • Steinsson, Jón

Abstract

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazell, Joe & Herreño, Juan & Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2022. "The slope of the Phillips Curve: evidence from U.S. States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113326, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/113326/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    2. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January.
    3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, June.
    5. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    2. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 133-163, May.
    3. Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "Determinacy of Interest Rate Rules with Bond Transaction Services in a Cashless Economy," Research Papers in Economics 2008:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    4. boughabi, houssam, 2025. "Ghanaian Inflation and Income Dynamics: Evidence on Volatility and Neutrality," MPRA Paper 126757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Waki, Yuichiro & Dennis, Richard & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2018. "The optimal degree of monetary-discretion in a New Keynesian model with private information," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), September.
    6. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    7. Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "Determinacy of Interest Rate Rules with Bond Transaction Services in a Cashless Economy," Research Papers in Economics 2008:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
    9. Loyo, Eduardo, 2002. "Imaginary money against sticky relative prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1073-1092, June.
    10. Waki, Yuichiro & Dennis, Richard & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2015. "The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-66, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Byoungchan Lee, 2020. "Business Cycles and Earnings Inequality," HKUST CEP Working Papers Series 202001, HKUST Center for Economic Policy.
    12. Buiter, Willem H., 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 2205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Larsen, Rasmus Bisgaard & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2025. "House prices, endogenous productivity, and the effects of government spending shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. repec:pri:cepsud:114blinderreis is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January.
    16. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 289-323, March.
    17. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    18. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "A Sticky-information General Equilibrium Model por Policy Analysis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 8, pages 227-283, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Levin, Andrew T. & David López-Salido, J. & Nelson, Edward & Yun, Tack, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 48-62, October.
    20. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.