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Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve

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  • Timothy Cogley
  • Argia M. Sbordone

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) asserts that inflation depends on expectations of real marginal costs, but empirical research has shown that purely forward-looking versions of the model generate too little inflation persistence. In this paper, we offer a resolution of the persistence problem. We hypothesize that inflation is highly persistent because of drift in trend inflation, a feature that many versions of the NKPC neglect. We derive a version of the NKPC as a log-linear approximation around a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains deviations of inflation from that trend. We estimate the NKPC parameters jointly with those that define the inflation trend by estimating a vector autoregression with drifting coefficients and volatilities; the autoregressive parameters are constrained to satisfy the restrictions imposed by the NKPC. Our results suggest that trend inflation has been historically quite volatile and that a purely forward-looking model that takes these fluctuations into account approximates well the short-run dynamics of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. I must be crazy
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-12-19 03:24:01
    2. Modern macro models are falsifiable
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-02-06 02:19:14

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    Cited by:

    1. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
    2. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2013. "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Dinámica inflacionaria, persistencia y formación de precios y salarios, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 139-182 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. Andreas Hornstein, 2007. "Notes on the inflation dynamics of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.
    6. Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    7. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2010. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 232, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    8. Yao, Fang, 2009. "Time-dependent pricing and New Keynesian Phillips curve," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2009. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 38-56.
    10. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Adolfo Sachsida & Marcio Ribeiro & Claudio Hamilton dos Santos, 2009. "A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1429, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    16. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    17. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    18. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    19. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    20. Fang Yao, 2009. "Non-constant Hazard Function and Inflation Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    21. repec:cml:incocp:2en-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.
    23. Andrea Vaona, 2008. "Inflation persistence, structural breaks and omitted variables: a critical view," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0802, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    24. Andreas Hornstein, 2007. "Evolving inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 317-339.
    25. repec:cml:incocp:2sp-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Phillips curve ; Inflation (Finance);

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