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A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?

  • Fabio Milani

    (University of California, Irvine)

This paper estimates a monetary DSGE model with learning introduced from the primitive assumptions. The model nests infinite-horizon learning and features, such as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation, that are essential for the model fit under rational expectations. I estimate the DSGE model by Bayesian methods, obtaining estimates of the main learning parameter, the constant gain, jointly with the deep parameters of the economy. The results show that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations in favor of learning may render mechanical sources of persistence superfluous. In particular, learning appears to be a crucial determinant of inflation inertia.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:3:a:3
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  1. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Macroeconomics 0506013, EconWPA.
  2. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
  3. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
  9. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model: an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 0389, European Central Bank.
  10. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  11. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  12. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2003-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  15. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans, 2011. "Notes on Agents¡¯ Behavioral Rules Under Adaptive Learning and Studies of Monetary Policy," CDMA Working Paper Series 201102, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  16. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA.
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