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Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy

  • Preston, Bruce

This paper investigates monetary policy design when central bank and private-sector expectations differ. Private agents learn adaptively; the central bank has a possibly misspecified model of the economy. Successful implementation of optimal policy using inflation targeting rules requires the central bank to have complete knowledge of private agents' learning behavior. If the central bank mistakenly assumes private agents to have rational expectations when in fact they are learning, then policy rules frequently lead to divergent learning dynamics. However, if the central bank does not correctly understand agents' behavior, stabilization policy is best implemented by controlling the path of the price level rather than the inflation rate.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 3661-3681

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:11:p:3661-3681
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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  1. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2005.
  4. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  5. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Working Paper Series 0127, European Central Bank.
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  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  12. Krisztina Molnár & Sergio Santoro, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Agents Are Learning," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0601, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, revised 15 Mar 2006.
  13. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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