On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective
Many macroeconomic models involving rational expect at ions give rise to an infinity of solution paths, even when the models are linear in all variables. Some writers have suggested that this non-uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis. One purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non-uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but, instead, is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations. It is also argued that there typically exists, in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models, a single solution that excludes "bubble" or "bootstrap" effects -- ones that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur. A systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed. In addition, this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities, including ones developed by Fischer Black and John B. Taylor.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1981|
|Publication status:||published as McCallum, Bennett T. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, (March 1983) pp. 139-168.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Shiller, Robert J., 1978.
"Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 0093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Karl Shell & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1967. "The Allocation of Investment in a Dynamic Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 592-609.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
- Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
- Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796-796. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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