IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18348.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria

Author

Listed:
  • Seonghoon Cho
  • Bennett T. McCallum

Abstract

This paper proposes forward convergence as a model refinement scheme for linear rational expectations (LRE) models and an associated no-bubble condition as a solution selection criterion. We relate these two concepts to determinacy and characterize the complete set of economically relevant rational expectations solutions to the LRE models under determinacy and indeterminacy. Our results show (1) why a determinate solution is economically meaningful in most, but not all, cases, and (2) that those models that are not forward-convergent have no economically relevant solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Seonghoon Cho & Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 18348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18348
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18348.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    2. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    4. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2011. "The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 257-272, March.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-118, May.
    6. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Another weakness of "determinacy" as a selection criterion for rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 17-19, July.
    7. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1998. "Solutions to linear rational expectations models: a compact exposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 143-147, November.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    11. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    14. Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 18215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February.
    16. Driskill, Robert, 2006. "Multiple equilibria in dynamic rational expectations models: A critical review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 171-210, January.
    17. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    18. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2016. "Generalized stability of monetary unions under regime switching in monetary and fiscal policies," DNB Working Papers 524, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Seonghoon Cho, 2016. "Sufficient Conditions for Determinacy in a Class of Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 182-200, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.