IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/14-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sufficient Conditions for Determinacy in a Class of Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models

Author

Listed:
  • Seonghoon Cho

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

Markov-switching rational expectations (MSRE) models can bring out fresh insights beyond what linear rational expectations models have done for macroeconomics, as noted and predicted by Davig and Leeper (2007) and Farmer, Waggoner and Zha (2009), among others. However, a lack of tractable methodological foundations may have hindered researchers from uncovering the salient features of MSRE models. This study proposes a solution method and derives very tractable sufficient conditions for determinacy and indeterminacy in the mean-square stability sense in general MSRE models with lagged endogenous variables. These tasks are accomplished by extending the forward method of Cho and Moreno (2011) developed for linear rational expectations models to MSRE. We apply our methodology to a New-Keynesian model subject to regime-switching in monetary policy and find some unforeseen but intuitive determinacy results. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Seonghoon Cho, 2016. "Sufficient Conditions for Determinacy in a Class of Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 182-200, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:14-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2015.03.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2015.03.001
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    2. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
    4. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
    5. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2011. "The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 257-272, March.
    6. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Refining linear rational expectations models and equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 160-169.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
    10. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    11. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    12. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, July.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    14. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    15. Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.
    16. Jess Benhabib, 2009. "A Note on Regime Switching, Monetary Policy, and Multiple Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 14770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    18. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
    19. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 877-888, December.
    20. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
    21. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    2. Boris Blagov, 2018. "Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1060, May.
    3. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    4. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    5. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    6. Binning, Andrew & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2019. "Is monetary policy always effective? Incomplete interest rate pass-through in a DSGE model," Working Paper 2019/22, Norges Bank.
    7. Xin Wei, 2020. "Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    8. Neusser, Klaus, 2019. "Time–varying rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 882, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Tirskikh, Mikhail, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 13450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2020. "Optimal monetary policy and determinacy under active/passive regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    15. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2018. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Troy Davig & Eric Leeper, 2009. "Reply To “Generalizing The Taylor Principle: A Comment”," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-008, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 717-756, May.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    5. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 211-230, February.
    6. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 187-202, March.
    8. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    9. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    10. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    11. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    12. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    13. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    14. Jason Choi & Andrew Foerster, . "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    16. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Refining linear rational expectations models and equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 160-169.
    17. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Monetary regime switches and unstable objectives," International Finance Discussion Papers 1036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
    19. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    20. Choi, Jinho & Hur, Joonyoung, 2015. "An examination of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea exploiting a Markov-switching DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-199.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching; Mean-square stability; Determinacy; Forward method; No-bubble condition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:14-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.