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Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium

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  • Leonardo Melosi

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper develops methods to study the evolution of agents' expectations and uncertainty in general equilibrium models. A central insight consists of recognizing that the evolution of agents' beliefs can be captured by defining a set of regimes that are characterized by the degree of agents' pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty about future equilibrium outcomes. Once this kind of structure is imposed, it is possible to create a mapping between the evolution of agents' beliefs and observable outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational, conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents form expectations taking into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they observe in the future. The new modeling framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in agents' beliefs and allows an analytical characterization of uncertainty. Shocks to beliefs are shown to have both first-order and second-order effects. To illustrate how to apply the methods, we use a prototypical Real Business Cycle model in which households form beliefs about the likely duration of high-growth and low-growth regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:67
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    Cited by:

    1. Spencer D. Krane & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2023. "Learning Monetary Policy Strategies at the Effective Lower Bound with Sudden Surprises," Working Paper Series WP 2023-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    3. Harrison, Ricahrd, 2014. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
    5. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    6. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
    8. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 187-202, March.
    10. Andrew Foerster & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Learning About Regime Change," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1829-1859, November.
    11. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2025. "Transfers or subsidies? Comparing mitigation strategies for energy price shocks in a production network model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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