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Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models

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  • Harrison, Richard

Abstract

Simulations of forward guidance in rational expectations models should be assessed using the “modest policy interventions” framework introduced by Eric Leeper and Tao Zha. That is, the estimated effects of a policy intervention should be considered reliable only if that intervention is unlikely to trigger a revision in private sector beliefs about the way that monetary policy will be conducted. I show how to constrain simulations of forward guidance to ensure that they are regarded as modest policy interventions and illustrate the technique using a medium-scale DSGE model estimated on US data. I find that many experiments that generate the large responses of macroeconomic variables deemed implausible by many economists – the so-called “forward guidance puzzle” – are not modest policy interventions. Those experiments should therefore be treated with caution, since they may prompt agents to believe that there has been a change in the monetary policy regime that is not accounted for within the model. More reliable results can be obtained by constraining the experiment to be a modest policy intervention. In the cases I study, the quantitative effects on macroeconomic variables are more plausible when this constraint is imposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:196-213
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher M. Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "Monetary News Shocks," Carleton Economic Papers 15-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 17 Feb 2017.
    2. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    3. repec:bla:jecsur:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:678-711 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward guidance; DSGE models; Policy experiments; Rational expectations; Modest policy interventions;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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