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A Reconsideration of Money Growth Rules

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  • Michael T. Belongia

    (University of Mississippi)

  • Peter N. Ireland

    (Boston College)

Abstract

A New Keynesian model, estimated using Bayesian methods over a sample period that includes the recent episode of zero nominal interest rates, illustrates the effects of replacing the Federal Reserve's historical policy of interest rate management with one targeting money growth instead. Counterfactual simulations show that a rule for adjusting the money growth rate, modestly and gradually, in response to changes in the output gap delivers performance comparable to the estimated interest rate rule in stabilizing output and inflation. The simulations also reveal that, under the same money growth rule, the US economy would have recovered more quickly from the 2007-09 recession, with a much shorter period of exceptionally low interest rates. These results suggest that money growth rules can serve as a simple and effective alternative guide for monetary policy in the current low interest rate environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2019. "A Reconsideration of Money Growth Rules," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 976, Boston College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:976
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    2. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    3. Ida, Daisuke, 2023. "The effect of real money balances on international monetary policy transmission," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. John B. Taylor, 2021. "Simple monetary rules: many strengths and few weaknesses," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 267-283, December.
    5. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2019. "The demand for Divisia Money: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2024. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Barnett William A. & Bella Giovanni & Ghosh Taniya & Mattana Paolo & Venturi Beatrice, 2023. "Controlling chaos in New Keynesian macroeconomics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 219-236, April.
    8. Ida, Daisuke, 2024. "The neo-Fisherian effect in a new Keynesian model with real money balances," MPRA Paper 120575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. David Cerezo S'anchez, 2022. "Zero-Knowledge Optimal Monetary Policy under Stochastic Dominance," Papers 2210.06139, arXiv.org.
    10. Donato Masciandaro, 2023. "How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23196, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Peter N. Ireland, 2019. "Monetary Policy Implementation: Making Better and More Consistent Use of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 31(4), pages 68-76, December.
    12. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2023. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the United States: The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 961-977, November.
    13. Barlow, David, 2023. "The stability of UK households Divisia money balances," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 451-459.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divisia monetary aggregates; Monetary policy rules; New Keynesian models; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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