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A Reconsideration of Money Growth Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Michael T. Belongia

    (University of Mississippi)

  • Peter N. Ireland

    () (Boston College)

Abstract

A New Keynesian model, estimated using Bayesian methods over a sample period that includes the recent episode of zero nominal interest rates, illustrates the effects of replacing the Federal Reserve's historical policy of interest rate management with one targeting money growth instead. Counterfactual simulations show that a rule for adjusting the money growth rate, modestly and gradually, in response to changes in the output gap delivers performance comparable to the estimated interest rate rule in stabilizing output and inflation. The simulations also reveal that, under the same money growth rule, the US economy would have recovered more quickly from the 2007-09 recession, with a much shorter period of exceptionally low interest rates. These results suggest that money growth rules can serve as a simple and effective alternative guide for monetary policy in the current low interest rate environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2019. "A Reconsideration of Money Growth Rules," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 976, Boston College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:976
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong Lan & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2012. "Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions to DSGE Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2010. "Tailored randomized block MCMC methods with application to DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 19-38, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divisia monetary aggregates; Monetary policy rules; New Keynesian models; Zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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