IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlbes/v33y2015i2p255-269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Michael T. Belongia
  • Peter N. Ireland

Abstract

Over the last 25 years, a set of influential studies has placed interest rates at the heart of analyses that interpret and evaluate monetary policies. In light of this work, the Federal Reserve's recent policy of "quantitative easing," with its goal of affecting the supply of liquid assets, appears to be a radical break from standard practice. Alternatively, one could posit that the monetary aggregates, when measured properly, never lost their ability to explain aggregate fluctuations and, for this reason, represent an important omission from standard models and policy discussions. In this context, the new policy initiatives can be characterized simply as conventional attempts to increase money growth. This view is supported by evidence that superlative (Divisia) measures of money often help in forecasting movements in key macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the statistical fit of a structural vector autoregression deteriorates significantly if such measures of money are excluded when identifying monetary policy shocks. These results cast doubt on the adequacy of conventional models that focus on interest rates alone. They also highlight that all monetary disturbances have an important "quantitative" component, which is captured by movements in a properly measured monetary aggregate.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:33:y:2015:i:2:p:255-269
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.946132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2014.946132
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 801, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Interest On Reserves," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1271-1312, September.
    3. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1984. "Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment," NBER Working Papers 1272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 5-21.
    6. Ireland, Peter N, 2004. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 969-983, December.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
    9. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    10. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2014. "Redundancy Or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal Of Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(07), pages 1437-1465, October.
    11. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    12. William Barnett & Jia Liu & Ryan Mattson & Jeff Noort, 2013. "The New CFS Divisia Monetary Aggregates: Design, Construction, and Data Sources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 101-124, February.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    14. Tatom, John A., 2014. "U.S. monetary policy in disarray," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 47-58.
    15. Edward Nelson, 2007. "Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 153-182.
    16. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    17. Barnett, William A., 2012. "Getting it Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262516888, January.
    18. Thoma, Mark A & Gray, Jo Anna, 1998. "Financial Market Variables Do Not Predict Real Activity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 522-539, October.
    19. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    20. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
    21. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    22. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    23. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2006. "The Own-Price of Money and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 429-445, March.
    24. Laidler, David, 1997. "Notes on the Microfoundations of Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1213-1223, July.
    25. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    26. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 31-54, February.
    27. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    28. Friedman, Milton, 1984. "Lessons from the 1979-82 Monetary Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 397-400, May.
    29. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
    30. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1984. "Lessons from the 1979-82 Monetary Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 382-387, May.
    31. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    32. Jeffrey J. Hallman & Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1989. "M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level," Staff Studies 157, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pa:p:42-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:99-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2017. "The Demand for Divisia Money: Theory and Evidence," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 937, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Darvas, Zsolt, 2015. "Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 123-126.
    6. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Karl Pinno & Apostolos Serletis, 2016. "Money, Velocity, and the Stock Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 671-695, September.
    8. William Barnett & Liting Su, 2014. "The Joint Services of Money and Credit," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201407, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2014.
    9. William A. Barnett & Soumya Suvra Bhadury & Taniya Ghosh, 2016. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 871-893, November.
    10. Taniya Ghosh & Soumya Bhadury, 2017. "Money's Causal Role in Exchange Rate: Do Divisia Monetary Aggregates Explain More?," Working Papers id:12107, eSocialSciences.
    11. Jonas E. Arias & Dario Caldara & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2014. "The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure," Working Papers 2014-13, FEDEA.
    12. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2018. "Targeting Constant Money Growth at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 159-204, March.
    13. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
    14. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 921, Boston College Department of Economics.
    15. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2015. "The impact of commercial sweeping on the demand for monetary assets during the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 412-422.
    16. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, September.
    17. Schwartzman, Felipe, 2013. "The Business Cycle Behavior of Working Capital," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 287-303.
    18. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pa:p:110-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Apostolos Serletis & Khandokar Istiak, 2016. "Are the Responses of the U.S. Economy Asymmetric to Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 303-316, April.
    20. Helmut Lütkepohl & Tomasz Woźniak, 2017. "Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1707, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:33:y:2015:i:2:p:255-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UBES20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.