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Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006

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  • Edward Nelson

Abstract

This paper brings together, using extensive archival material from several countries, scattered information about Milton Friedman?s views and predictions regarding U.S. monetary policy developments after 1960 (i.e., the period beyond that covered by his and Anna Schwartz?s Monetary History of the United States). I evaluate these interpretations and predictions in light of subsequent events.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Nelson, 2007. "Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006," Working Papers 2007-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2007-002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    2. Richard G. Anderson & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 1994. "A historical perspective on the Federal Reserve's monetary aggregates: definition, construction and targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-31.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    4. Michael R. Darby & William Poole & David E. Lindsey & Milton Friedman & Michael J. Bazdarich, 1987. "Recent Behavior Of The Velocity Of Money," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, January.
    5. Arthur F. Burns, 1973. "Letter on monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 55(Nov), pages 15-22.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    7. Alan S. Blinder, 1997. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: What Central Bankers Could Learn from Academics--And Vice Versa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 3-19, Spring.
    8. Milton Friedman, 1970. "Comment on Tobin," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 318-327.
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    Cited by:

    1. Costas Milas, 2009. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
    2. william, barnett, 2013. "Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures," MPRA Paper 52310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sources of Local-Currency Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 319-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David Laidler, 2018. "Why the fuss? Friedman (1968) after 50 years," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 437-445, October.
    5. Stephen G. Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 153-186.
    6. James R. Lothian & George S. Tavlas, 2018. "How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 757-787, June.
    7. George S. Tavlas, 2015. "In Old Chicago: Simons, Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 99-121, February.
    8. Qian Guo & Huw Rhys & Xiaojing Song & Mark Tippett, 2016. "The Friedman rule and inflation targeting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1414-1434, November.
    9. repec:rim:rimwps:25-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2011. "Policy Rule Coefficients Driven by Latent Factors: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Endowment Economy," MPRA Paper 29976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    12. Peter J. Boettke & Daniel J. Smith, 2016. "Evolving views on monetary policy in the thought of Hayek, Friedman, and Buchanan," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 351-370, December.
    13. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 801, Boston College Department of Economics.
    14. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    15. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, August.
    16. Sylvie Rivot, 2015. "Rule-based frameworks in historical perspective: Keynes' and Friedman's monetary policies versus contemporary policy-rules," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 601-633, August.
    17. Mehdi Pedram, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy in the monetary union: effects on business cycles," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 35(1), pages 90-117, March.
    18. Johannes A. Schwarzer, 2018. "Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the "Cruel Dilemma"," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 195-210, Winter.
    19. David Laidler, 2007. "Successes and Failures of Monetary Policy Since the 1950s," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20072, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
    20. Hassan, Sherif Maher, 2016. "A Historical Retrieval of the Methods and Functions of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 75648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Michael D. Bordo & Hugh Rockoff, 2011. "The Influence of Irving Fisher on Milton Friedman's Monetary Economics," NBER Working Papers 17267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Federal Reserve System - History; Friedman; Milton; Economic history;

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