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Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy

  • Stephen G. Hall
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

The European Central Bank (ECB) assigns greater weight to the role of money in its monetary policy strategy than most, if not all, other major central banks. Nevertheless, reflecting the view that the demand for money became unstable in the early 2000s, some commentators have reported that the ECB has “downgraded” the role of money demand functions in its strategy. This paper explains the ECB’s monetary policy strategy and shows the considerable influence of Milton Friedman’s contributions on the formulation of that strategy. The paper also provides new evidence on the stability of euro area money demand. Following a conjecture made by Friedman (1956), the authors assign a role to uncertainty in the money demand function. They find that although uncertainty is mean reverting, it is none­theless nonstationary, subject to wide swings, and has substantial effects on the demand for money.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 153-186

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2012:i:may:p:153-186:n:v.94no.3
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  1. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
  2. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, July.
  3. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521516730 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
  5. Stephen Hall & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2012. "Generalized cointegration: a new concept with an application to health expenditure and health outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 603-618, April.
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521788885 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas & Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis, 2008. "Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Model misspecification and Measurement Error," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/27, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Working Papers 57, Bank of Greece.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521783248 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521731867 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  13. George S. Tavlas, 1998. "Was the Monetarist Tradition Invented?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 211-222, Fall.
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