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Re-vitalizing Money Demand in the Euro Area: Still Valid at the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Dieter Gerdesmeier
  • Barbara Roffia

Abstract

The analysis of monetary developments have always been a cornerstone of the ECB’s monetaryanalysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demandmodels provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stabilityover the medium term. It is a well-documented fact in the literature that, when interestrates are at the zero lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more importantfor monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re-investigates the stability properties of M3 demandin the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis isperformed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well-identified modelcomprising real money balances, income, the long term interest rate and the own rate of M3holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependentparameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest ratesreach the zero lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do notpoint to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turnout to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflationforecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policymeasures does not contradict these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2016. "Re-vitalizing Money Demand in the Euro Area: Still Valid at the Zero Lower Bound," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1606, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1606
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Emanuele Borgonovo & Stefano Caselli & Alessandra Cillo & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Between Cash, Deposit And Bitcoin: Would We Like A Central Bank Digital Currency? Money Demand And Experimental Economics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1875, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area money demand; inflation forecasts; unconventional monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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