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Instabile Geldnachfrage im Euroraum?

  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters

Recent econometric studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run standard money demand relationship. The corresponding error correction model is robust to a number of specification tests. This result can be obtained when the role of the inflation rate in money demand is properly acknowledged. Ökonometrische Studien weisen zunehmend auf Instabilitäten in der Geldnachfrage hin. Ein solcher Befund stellt die monetäre Strategie der EZB in Frage, die wesentlich auf einer stabilen Beziehung zwischen den Geldbeständen und ökonomischen Fundamentalvariablen beruht. In diesem Artikel wird jedoch gezeigt, dass die Entwicklung von M3 sowohl kurz- und langfristig im Rahmen einer Standardspezifikation der Geldnachfrage durchaus gerechtfertigt werden kann. Wesentlich für dieses Ergebnis ist die Berücksichtigung und adäquate Interpretation der Inflationsrate in der Geldnachfragefunktion.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 76 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 85-95

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-8
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