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Instabile Geldnachfrage im Euroraum?

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters

Abstract

Recent econometric studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run standard money demand relationship. The corresponding error correction model is robust to a number of specification tests. This result can be obtained when the role of the inflation rate in money demand is properly acknowledged. Ökonometrische Studien weisen zunehmend auf Instabilitäten in der Geldnachfrage hin. Ein solcher Befund stellt die monetäre Strategie der EZB in Frage, die wesentlich auf einer stabilen Beziehung zwischen den Geldbeständen und ökonomischen Fundamentalvariablen beruht. In diesem Artikel wird jedoch gezeigt, dass die Entwicklung von M3 sowohl kurz- und langfristig im Rahmen einer Standardspezifikation der Geldnachfrage durchaus gerechtfertigt werden kann. Wesentlich für dieses Ergebnis ist die Berücksichtigung und adäquate Interpretation der Inflationsrate in der Geldnachfragefunktion.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2007. "Instabile Geldnachfrage im Euroraum?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 85-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-8
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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.76.4.85
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration analysis; error correction; money demand; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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