IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Money demand stability and inflation prediction in the four largest EMU countries

Listed author(s):
  • Carstensen, Kai
  • Hagen, Jan
  • Hossfeld, Oliver
  • Neaves, Abelardo S.

In this paper, we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less clear. From the estimated money demand functions, we derive both EMU-4 and country-specific measures of money overhang. We find that the EMU-4 overhang measure strongly correlates with the country-specific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an important, but by far not an exhaustive, indicator for the disaggregate level.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 19946.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Publication status: Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy 1 56(2009): pp. 73-93
Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19946
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstr. 28, 80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-3405
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3510
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
  2. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
  3. Volker Clausen, 1998. "Money demand and monetary policy in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 712-740, December.
  4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  5. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Vega, 2002. "The information content of M3 for future inflation in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 22-53, March.
  6. Luca Dedola & Eugenio Gaiotti & Luca Silipo, 2001. "Money demand in the euro area: do national differences matter?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
  8. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 395-402, October.
  9. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 0261, European Central Bank.
  10. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
  11. Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998. "Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August.
  12. JØrgen Wolters & Helmut LØtkepohl, 1998. "A money demand system for German M3," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 371-386.
  13. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481.
  14. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2003. "Comparison of tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a structural shift," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 201-229, April.
  15. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  16. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  17. Bischoff, Charles W & Belay, Halefom, 2001. "The Problem of Identification of the Money Demand Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 205-215, May.
  18. Funke, Michael, 2001. "Money demand in Euroland," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 701-713, October.
  19. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-464, October.
  20. Carlos Robalo Marques & Nuno Alves & João Sousa, 2006. "Some Issues Concerning the Use of M3 for Monetary Policy Analysis in the Euro Area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  21. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  22. Bruggeman, Annick, 2000. "The Stability of EMU-Wide Money Demand Functions and the Monetary Policy Strategy of the European Central Bank," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 184-202, March.
  23. Angeloni, Ignazio & Cottarelli, Carlo & Levy, Aviram, 1994. "Cross-border deposits, aggregation, and money demand in the transition to EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 27-54, February.
  24. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
  25. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191 Bank for International Settlements.
  26. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  27. Claus Brand & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 03, European Central Bank.
  28. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  29. Zenon Kontolemis, 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area; Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 02/185, .
  30. Kirstin Hubrich & Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600037, EcoMod.
  31. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02.
  32. Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, 09.
  33. Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
  34. Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 371-391, October.
  35. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
  36. Elyasiani, Elyas & Zadeh, Ali H. M., 1999. "Econometric tests of alternative scale variables in money demand in open economies: International evidence from selected OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 193-211.
  37. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
  38. Warne, Anders & Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 0255, European Central Bank.
  39. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Juselius, Katarina & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in Spain: The effect of monetization, financial deregulation, and the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 509-531, April.
  41. Gennari, E., 1999. "Estimating Money Demand in Italy 1970-1994," Economics Working Papers eco99/7, European University Institute.
  42. Carlo Monticelli, 1996. "EU-wide money and cross-border holdings," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(2), pages 215-235, September.
  43. Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Estimating a European Demand for Money," Macroeconomics 9811008, EconWPA.
  44. Andreas Beyer, 1998. "Modelling money demand in Germany," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 57-76.
  45. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
  46. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
  47. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
  48. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
  49. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
  50. M. Camarero & J. Ordonez & C. R. Tamarit, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Spain: a structural cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(17), pages 2201-2212.
  51. Michael Scharnagl, 1998. "The stability of German money demand: Not just a myth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 355-370.
  52. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
  53. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
  54. Paul R Masson & Marcel Cassard & Timothy D. Lane, 1994. "ERM Money Supplies and the Transition to EMU," IMF Working Papers 94/1, .
  55. Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  56. Cassard, Marcel & Lane, Timothy D & Masson, Paul R, 1997. "Core ERM Money Demand and Effects on Inflation," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 1-24, January.
  57. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  58. Kirstin Hubrich, 1999. "Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99.
  59. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand; Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, .
  60. L Tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J Rgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(05), pages 711-733, November.
  61. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  62. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
  63. Clausen , Volker & Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2000. "The Long-Run Stability of European Money Demand," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 486-505.
  64. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1997. "Order selection in testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,93, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  65. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics.
  66. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
  67. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & Greiber, Claus, 2004. "Inflation and core money growth in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tamilla Benkelberg)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.