Estimating a European demand for money
European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand function at a European level is important. In this paper estimates of such a European money demand for narrow and broad money for the actual 11 EMU countries based on quarterly aggregate data from 1964 to 1994 are presented. It is argued that statistically satisfactory and economically interpretable functions can be found. The robustness of the results is further evaluated using alternative country groups. Moreover, the estimated models appear to be stable over a period of 20 quarters. This raises the hopes that the ECB will face a stable money demand and be able - at least for a certain time - to use past aggregate data for policy purposes.
|Date of creation:||1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Walter-Flex-Straße 3, D - 53113 Bonn|
Web page: http://www.zei.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hayo, Bernd, 1994. "No Further Evidence of Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(2), pages 287-94.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data,"
78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
- Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Simplicity in econometric modelling: some methodological considerations," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 247-261.
- Martin Falk & Norbert Funke, 1995. "The stability of money demand in Germany and in the EMS: Impact of German unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 470-488, September.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "Financial innovation, deregulation and the "credit view" of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-49.
- John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Spencer, Peter, 1997. "Monetary integration and currency substitution in the EMS: The case for a European monetary aggregate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1403-1419, July.
- Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Carlo Monticelli & Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1992.
"European integration and the demand for broad money,"
BIS Working Papers
18, Bank for International Settlements.
- Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-66, December.
- Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997.
"Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey,"
7, European Monetary Institute.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Ray C. Fair, 1986.
"International Evidence on the Demand for Money,"
NBER Working Papers
2106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989.
"Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
- M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
- William Poole, 1987.
"Monetary Policy Lessons of recent Inflation and Disinflation,"
NBER Working Papers
2300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poole, William, 1988. "Monetary Policy Lessons of Recent Inflation and Disinflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 73-100, Summer.
- Angeloni, Ignazio & Cottarelli, Carlo & Levy, Aviram, 1994. "Cross-border deposits, aggregation, and money demand in the transition to EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 27-54, February.
- Knox Lovell, C. A., 1973. "A note on aggregation bias and loss," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 301-311, October.
- Volker Clausen, 1998. "Money demand and monetary policy in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 712-740, December.
- Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
- Ivo Arnold, 1994. "The myth of a stable European money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 249-259, July.
- Timothy D. Lane & Stephen S. Poloz, 1992. "Currency Substitution and Cross-Border Monetary Aggregation; Evidence From the G-7," IMF Working Papers 92/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
- Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The demand for divisia money in a core monetary union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-60.
- Cassard, Marcel & Lane, Timothy D & Masson, Paul R, 1997. "Core ERM Money Demand and Effects on Inflation," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 1-24, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b051998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.