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The Long Run Demand for Broad Money in Australia Subject to Regime Shifts

  • Felmingham, B.
  • Zhang, Q.
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    The goal is to determine if there is a stable Broad Money Demand relationship for Australia. Previous studies have not reached a consensus on this important issue, partly because the time series techniques used do not accommodate structural breaks. A standard multivariate cointegration analysis is conducted on monthly data over the period 1976 to 1998. It reveals some evidence for the presence of cointegration since one cointegrating vector is found. This involves broad money, the spread between interest on broad money and on non-money assets and real GDP. The evidence of cointegration is again present when a structural break is found in the relationship using Gregory and Hansen (GH) methodology. This occurs in 1991 coinciding with a deep recession and policy induced, interest rate reductions. The income elasticity of demand exceeds one, reacts positively to the interest spread and negatively to inflation.

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    Paper provided by Tasmania - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 2000-07.

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    Length: 12 pages
    Date of creation: 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fth:tasman:2000-07
    Contact details of provider: Postal: UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, HOBART TASMANIA 7001 AUSTRALIA.
    Phone: +61 3 6226 7672
    Fax: +61 3 6226 7587
    Web page: http://www.utas.edu.au/economics-finance/

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    1. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315.
    3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
    4. Karfakis, Costas I & Parikh, Ashok, 1993. "A Cointegration Approach to Monetary Targeting in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(60), pages 53-72, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Juan Luis Vega, 1998. "Money demand stability: Evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 387-400.
    7. Macfarlane, I J, 1999. "Australian Monetary Policy in the Last Quarter of the Twentieth Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(230), pages 213-24, September.
    8. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Susan Thorp, 1987. "Money Demand, Own Interest Rates and Deregulation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8703, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
    11. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    12. Ripatti, Antti, 1996. "Stability of the Demand for M1 and Harmonized M3 in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/1996, Bank of Finland.
    13. Glenn Stevens & Susan Thorp & John Anderson, 1987. "The Australian Demand Function for Money: Another Look at Stability," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8701, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1989. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 95-131, April.
    15. Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1981. "The Short-run Demand for Transactions Balances in Australia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(192), pages 381-95, November.
    16. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
    17. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
    18. Stephen Grenville, 1990. "The Operation of Monetary Policy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 23(2), pages 6-16.
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