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Money demand in Europe: Evidence from the past


  • Müller, Christian
  • Hahn, Elke


The conditions under which European monetary policy is likely to be conducted are investigated by means of multi-variate time series modelling using aggregated data of all eleven European Monetary Union member states. A cointegration analysis identifies two stable long-run relationships within a set of five key macroeconomic variables, one of which can be interpreted as a money demand function and a sec(md one as a long term real interest rate (Fisher parity). Our findings indicate that monetary authorities might well be able to base their policy on the existence of a money demand. Particular emphasis is given both to the data sources and their aggregation, by providing a transparent account of our calculation procedure, which is not yet common in the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Christian & Hahn, Elke, 2000. "Money demand in Europe: Evidence from the past," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200035

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    2. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
    3. Carlo Monticelli, 1996. "EU-wide money and cross-border holdings," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(2), pages 215-235, September.
    4. Hayo, Bernd, 1999. "Estimating a European Demand for Money," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 221-244, August.
    5. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-366, December.
    6. Sook Fwe Yap & Gregory C. Reinsel, 1995. "Results On Estimation And Testing For A Unit Root In The Nonstationary Autoregressive Moving-Average Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 339-353, May.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    9. Ivo Arnold, 1994. "The myth of a stable European money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 249-259, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Simulation Experiment," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 416-433.
    2. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item


    european money demand; monetary targeting; aggregation;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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