Money and prices: An I(2) analysis for the euro area
The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis is an important framework to analyze economic time series both in single equation and in system approaches. This framework is not only suited to study the relationships between variables that are integrated of order one, denoted by I(1), but also to analyze variables that are integrated of higher order. However, in the literature the analysis of I(1) models is much more popular than the analysis of I(2) models although there is some evidence that relevant economic times series like nominal money and the price level in the euro area are integrated of order two. This is confirmed by applying tests on double unit roots. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the analysis of I(2) variables and to show how this technique can be applied to explore the relationship between money and prices. The leading indicator property of money for prices, money demand analysis and the role of money in the transmission mechanism are addressed. It turns out that the I(2) analysis provides a considerable empirical method for extracting information from monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Juselius, Katarina, 1998. "A Structured VAR for Denmark under Changing Monetary Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 400-411, October.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
- Sen, D L & Dickey, David A, 1987. "Symmetric Test for Second Differencing in Univariate Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 463-73, October.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000.
"The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0976, Econometric Society.
- Laidler, David, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada.
- Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
- Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999.
"Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
- Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Shin, Dong Wan & Kim, Hyun Jung, 1999. "Semiparametric Tests for Double Unit Roots Based on Symmetric Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 67-73, January.
- Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Structural vector autoregressive models and monetary policy analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
- Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993.
"Vector Autoregressions and Causality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
- Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998.
"Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
- Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
- Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "Semiparametric Tests for Double Unit Roots," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 109-22, January.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 2000. "Asymptotic Efficiency Of The Two Stage Estimator In I (2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 524-550, August.
- Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July.
- Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.