Money and prices: An I(2) analysis for the euro area
The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis is an important framework to analyze economic time series both in single equation and in system approaches. This framework is not only suited to study the relationships between variables that are integrated of order one, denoted by I(1), but also to analyze variables that are integrated of higher order. However, in the literature the analysis of I(1) models is much more popular than the analysis of I(2) models although there is some evidence that relevant economic times series like nominal money and the price level in the euro area are integrated of order two. This is confirmed by applying tests on double unit roots. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the analysis of I(2) variables and to show how this technique can be applied to explore the relationship between money and prices. The leading indicator property of money for prices, money demand analysis and the role of money in the transmission mechanism are addressed. It turns out that the I(2) analysis provides a considerable empirical method for extracting information from monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Structural vector autoregressive models and monetary policy analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
- Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999.
"Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
- Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Sen, D L & Dickey, David A, 1987. "Symmetric Test for Second Differencing in Univariate Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 463-73, October.
- Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998.
"Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
- Laidler, David, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada.
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000.
"The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0976, Econometric Society.
- Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "Semiparametric Tests for Double Unit Roots," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 109-22, January.
- Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991.
"Vector Autoregression and Causality,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
977, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
- Shin, Dong Wan & Kim, Hyun Jung, 1999. "Semiparametric Tests for Double Unit Roots Based on Symmetric Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 67-73, January.
- Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 2000. "Asymptotic Efficiency Of The Two Stage Estimator In I (2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 524-550, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
- Juselius, Katarina, 1998. "A Structured VAR for Denmark under Changing Monetary Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 400-411, October.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
- Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.