IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w200212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area?

Author

Abstract

In this paper we re-evaluate the empirical evidence on money-inflation Granger causality for the euro area and, in contrast to Trecroci and Vega (2000), conclude that money does in fact Granger cause inflation. We also show that it takes about a year and a half for changes in money growth to start passing on to inflation and five years for the whole adjustment to take place

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquim Pina, 2002. "Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers w200212, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp200212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    2. Yamada, Hiroshi & Toda, Hiro Y., 1998. "Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: some finite sample evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 55-95, June.
    3. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    6. Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 63, European Central Bank.
    7. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    9. Friedman, Milton, 1972. "Have Monetary Policies Failed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 11-18, May.
    10. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Robalo Marques & Joaquim Pina, 2003. "Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jens R. Clausen & Juergen B. Donges, 2001. "European Monetary Policy: The Ongoing Debate on Conceptual Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(10), pages 1309-1326, November.
    2. Matteo Luciani, 2004. "A VAR Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 94(6), pages 175-214, November-.
    3. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    4. Carlos Robalo Marques & Joaquim Pina, 2003. "Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Heimonen, Kari, 2010. "Money and equity returns in the Euro area," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 152-169.
    6. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
    8. Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011. "Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
    9. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
    10. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    13. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Money and prices: An I(2) analysis for the euro area," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    14. Virginie Traclet, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some Interesting Principles for EMU?," Staff Working Papers 04-28, Bank of Canada.
    15. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    16. Nachane, D.M. & Dubey, Amlendu Kumar, 2011. "The vanishing role of money in the macro-economy: An empirical investigation for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 859-869, May.
    17. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili & Patrizia Passiglia, 2011. "Assessing excess liquidity in the euro area: the role of sectoral distribution of money," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3213-3230.
    18. Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Hat die Geldmenge ausgedient?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 423-453, November.
    19. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Simulation Experiment," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 416-433.
    20. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.