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The ECB's Two Pillars

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  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

This Paper suggests a formal interpretation of the ECB?s two-pillar framework for monetary policy. I decompose inflation in the euro area into high- and low-frequency (or short-run and medium/long-run) components, which are correlated with monetary growth and the output gap, respectively. I proceed to propose and estimate a ?two-pillar? Phillips curve that assumes that money causes prices. While the model fits well and the causality assumption seems compatible with the 1980-90 data, there appears to be reverse causality from prices to money in the 1991-2001 period, which would invalidate my model.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3689
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    2. Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1165-1181, November.
    3. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2007. "Two-Pillar Monetary Policy and Bootstrap Expectations," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 282/2007, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    4. Carstensen, Kai, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
    7. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    8. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
    9. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    10. Beck, Günter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2006. "Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: The two-pillar Phillips curve versus ECB-style cross-checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December.
    12. Beck, Günter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2006. "Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: A formal characterization of ECB-style cross-checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    14. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 524-533, 04-05.
    15. Paolo PAESANI, 2003. "Will the Monetary Pillar Stay? A Few Lessons from the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/10, European University Institute.
    16. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    17. Pearlman, Joseph G., 2005. "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 455, European Central Bank.
    18. Ramon Maria-Dolores, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules In Accession Countries to EU: Is the Taylor rule a pattern?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(7), pages 1-16.
    19. Tayebi , Seyed Komail & Amini , Khaled Mohammad & Zamani , Zahra, 2012. "Inflation Determinants in Low and High Frequencies: An Implication of Spectral Analysis to Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 119-137, October.
    20. Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Composite indicators for monetary analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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