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Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?

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  • De Grauwe, Paul
  • Polan, Magdalena

Abstract

Using a sample of about 160 countries over the last thirty years we test for the quantity theory relationship between money and inflation. When analysing the full sample of countries we find a strong positive relation between the long-run inflation and money growth rate. The relation is not, however, proportional. The strong link between inflation and money growth is almost wholly due to the presence of high (or hyper-) inflation countries in the sample. The relationship between inflation and money growth for low inflation countries (on average less than 10% per annum over the last 30 years) is weak. We find that the long-run average inflation and country-specific factors have a significant influence on the strength of the relationship. We also confirm that money growth and output growth are orthogonal in the long-run; i.e. higher growth rates of money do not lead to higher growth rates of output.

Suggested Citation

  • De Grauwe, Paul & Polan, Magdalena, 2001. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2841, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2841
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Morana & Fabio Cesare Bagliano, 2007. "Inflation and monetary dynamics in the USA: a quantity-theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 229-244.
    2. Jose de Gregorio R., 2003. "Money and Inflation: Where do we Stand?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(1), pages 5-19, April.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    4. Pablo García & Rodrigo Valdés, 2003. "Dinero y Conducción de la Política Monetaria con Metas de Inflación," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 698-706.
    5. Carlos J. Rodriguez-Fuentes & Antonio Olivera-Herrera & David Padron-Marrero, 2004. "Monetary policy and inflation persistence in the Eurozone," ERSA conference papers ersa04p218, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Price Stability And The Ecb'S Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 268-326, April.
    7. Basco, Emiliano & D'Amato, Laura & Garegnani, Lorena, 2009. "Understanding the money-prices relationship under low and high inflation regimes: Argentina 1977-2006," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1182-1203, November.
    8. Jorge Hermann & Rómulo Chumacero, 2005. "No Estaba Muerta, ...: La Teoría Cuantitativa y la Relación entre Dinero e Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 324, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Sornette, D & Takayasu, H & Zhou, W.-X, 2003. "Finite-time singularity signature of hyperinflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 325(3), pages 492-506.
    10. Emiliano Basco & Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani, 2006. "Understanding the Money-Prices Relationship Under Low and High Inflation Regimes: Argentina 1970-2005," BCRA Working Paper Series 200613, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    11. repec:cml:incocp:2en-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Waltraud Schelkle, 2003. "A Mixed Blessing: Monetary Enlargement within the Maastricht Policy Framework," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 624-635.
    13. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2003. "Money and Inflation in an Inflation-Tageting Regime," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(1), pages 21-47, April.
    14. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB'S Money Pillar; An Assessment," IMF Working Papers 03/82, International Monetary Fund.
    15. John C. Frain, 2004. "Inflation and Money Growth - Evidence from a Multi-Country Data-Set," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 251-266.
    16. Tobías Broer, 2005. "Money as an indicator for inflation and output in Chile - not anymore?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 319, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P, 2003. "Dinero e Inflación en el Marco de Metas de Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 198, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Pablo García, & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2004. "Monetarism Beyond M1A," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 262, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    20. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Hitchhiker's guide to inflation in Libya," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    21. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    23. Jose De Gregorio, 2003. "Dinero e Inflación: ¿En Qué Estamos?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 201, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Money; Quantity Theory of Money;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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