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Money, Output and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880-2001

Author

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  • Alfred A. Haug

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • William G. Dewald

    () (Department of Economics, Ohio State University)

Abstract

We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real output growth and inflation. Using band-pass filters, we extract cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years. We employ annual data, 1880-2001 without gaps, for eleven industrial countries. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic role at business cycle frequencies. However, money growth leads or affects contemporaneously inflation, but not real output growth, in the longer run. Also, formal break tests indicate no structural changes for the longer-term money growth and inflation relationship, despite changes in policy regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2010. "Money, Output and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880-2001," Working Papers 1013, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1128, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    4. Lothian, James R., 2014. "Monetary policy and the twin crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 197-210.
    5. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Interest Rates Rules," Working Papers 1009, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    6. Davies, Ceri & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; oil prices; exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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