IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

  • Alfred A. Haug

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Ian P. King

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1109.pdf
File Function: This version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1109.

as
in new window

Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1109
Contact details of provider: Postal:
P.O. Box 56, Dunedin

Phone: +64 3 479 8725
Fax: 64 3 479 8171
Web page: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rupert, Peter & Wright, Randall, 2007. "Inflation and Unemployment in General Equilibrium," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2fq1855f, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  3. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
  4. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
  5. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2009. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Kiel Working Papers 1501, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2010. "Money, Output and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880-2001," Working Papers 1013, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
  7. Alok Kumar, 2013. "Labor Markets, Unemployment and Optimal Inflation," Department Discussion Papers 1303, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  8. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September.
  9. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
  10. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
  11. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  12. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
  13. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Peter N. Ireland, 1998. "Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 415, Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  16. Barry Z. Cynamon & Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "Redefining the Monetary Agggregates: A Clean Sweep," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 661-672, Fall.
  17. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Another Look at Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 6597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  19. Timothy Cogley, 1998. "Alternative definitions of the business cycle and their implications for business cycle models: a reply to Torben Mark Pederson," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  21. Pierre Perron & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2005. "Testing for Shifts in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-026, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  22. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  23. Shi Shouyong, 1997. "Search for a Monetary Propagation Mechanism," Working Papers 966, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  24. Mei Dong, 2010. "Inflation and Unemployment in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Staff Working Papers 10-15, Bank of Canada.
  25. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
  26. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  29. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2004. "Testing Commitment Models of Monetary Policy: Evidence from OECD Economies," Staff General Research Papers 11995, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  30. Peter A. Diamond, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 217-227.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janet Bryant)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.