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Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

  • Alfred A. Haug

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Ian P. King

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.

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File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1109.pdf
File Function: This version, 2011
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Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1109.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1109
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  1. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
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  12. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
  13. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2009. "Inflation and unemployment in the long run," IEW - Working Papers 442, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
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  17. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  18. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  19. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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  23. Mei Dong, 2010. "Inflation and Unemployment in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Working Papers 10-15, Bank of Canada.
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  25. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
  26. Peter N. Ireland, 1998. "Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 415, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  28. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September.
  29. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
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