Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates
We show how monetary aggregates can be usefully incorporated in forecasts of inflation. This requires fully disregarding the high-frequency fluctuations blurring the money/inflation relation, i.e., the projection of inflation onto monetary aggregates must be restricted to the low frequencies. Using the same tools, we show that money growth has (little) predictive power over output at business cycle frequencies.
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- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008.
"Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
- Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006.
"Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," Working Papers 2006-05, Swiss National Bank.
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007.
"Money at Low Frequencies,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
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