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Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?

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  • Pedro Teles
  • Harald Uhlig
  • João Valle e Azevedo

Abstract

This article investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We demonstrate three insights. First, for countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. Second, the fit markedly improves, when correcting for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using elasticities implied by the theories of Baumol–Tobin and Miller–Orr. Finally, a subsample characterised by the adoption of inflation targeting shows considerably less inflation variability, worsening the fit of a one‐for‐one relationship between money growth and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:126:y:2016:i:591:p:442-464
    DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12336
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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