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Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?

  • Teles, Pedro
  • Uhlig, Harald

This paper investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We demonstrate three insights. First, for countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. Second, the fit markedly improves, when correcting for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using elasticities implied by theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, the sample after 1990 shows considerably less inflation variability, worsening the fit of a one-for-one relationship between money growth and inflation, and generates a fairly low elasticity of money demand.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8049.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8049
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  1. Merton H. Miller & Daniel Orr, 1966. "A Model of the Demand for Money by Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 413-435.
  2. Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 1997. "The optimal inflation tax," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 123, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2006. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation; A Cross-Country Study and Its Application to Jamaica," IMF Working Papers 06/121, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Another Look at Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 6597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money at Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  7. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
  8. Orazio Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 1998. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Households' Data," CSEF Working Papers 03, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  9. John B. Carlson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Benjamin D. Keen & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Working Paper 9917, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Jayasri Dutta & Sandeep Kapur, 1998. "Liquidity Preference and Financial Intermediation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 551-572.
  11. repec:pal:imfstp:v:56:y:2009:i:3:p:476-515 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Pedro Teles & Ruilin Zhou, 2005. "A stable money demand: Looking for the right monetary aggregate," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 50-63.
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