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Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey

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  • Lasha Kavtaradze
  • Manouchehr Mokhtari

Abstract

A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor†based and time†varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.

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  • Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:32:y:2018:i:2:p:302-334
    DOI: 10.1111/joes.12205
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    1. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Yen, Tso-Jung & Yen, Yu-Min, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using approximate factor models with outliers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 267-291.
    2. Solat, Karo & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2021. "Forecasting exchange rates with elliptically symmetric principal components," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1085-1091.
    3. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Brian D. Deaton, 2018. "Effects of the Swiss Franc/Euro Exchange Rate Floor on the Calibration of Probability Forecasts," Forecasting, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Муканов Нурбулат // Mukanov Nurbolat & Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva, 2017. "Оценка равновесного обменного курса в сырьевых экономиках // Assessment of equilibrium exchange rate in commodity based economies," Working Papers #2017-7, National Bank of Kazakhstan.

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