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Asymptotic confidence intervals for impulse responses of near-integrated processes

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  • Nikolay Gospodinov

Abstract

Many economic time series are characterized by high persistence which typically requires nonstandard limit theory for inference. This paper proposes a new method for constructing confidence intervals for impulse response functions and half-lives of nearly non-stationary processes. It is based on inverting the acceptance region of the likelihood ratio statistic under a sequence of null hypotheses of possible values for the impulse response or the half-life. This paper shows the consistency of the restricted estimator of the localizing constant which ensures the validity of the asymptotic inference. The proposed method is used to study the persistence of shocks to real exchange rates. Copyright Royal Economic Socciety 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Gospodinov, 2004. "Asymptotic confidence intervals for impulse responses of near-integrated processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 505-527, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:505-527
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    Cited by:

    1. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    2. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Barbara Rossi & Elena Pesavento, 2006. "Small-sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1135-1155.
    5. Jayasuriya, Sisira & Kim, Jae H. & Kumar, Parmod, 2007. "International and Internal Market Integration in Indian agriculture: A study of the Indian Rice Market," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7935, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Carlos Usabiaga & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "New Disaggregate Evidence on Spanish Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2012 3800, EcoMod.
    7. Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2011. "Mean-reversion in international real interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1959-1966, July.
    8. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Quantile unit root test and PPP: evidence from 23 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(31), pages 2899-2911, July.
    10. Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2012. "Disaggregate evidence on Spanish inflation persistence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3029-3046, August.
    11. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2008. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the largest root and the half-life," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 76-101, February.
    12. Lenard Lieb & Stephan Smeekes, 2017. "Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty," Papers 1709.09583, arXiv.org.
    13. Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param & Hyndman, Rob J., 2007. "Half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3418-3432, April.
    14. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:60:y:2015:i:04:n:s0217590815500873 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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