IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums

  • Sarno, Lucio
  • Schneider, Paul
  • Wagner, Christian

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of interest rates and exchange rates. Estimating affine (multi-currency) term structure models reveals a noticeable tradeoff between matching depreciation rates and accuracy in pricing bonds. Risk premiums implied by our global affine model generate unbiased predictions for currency excess returns and are closely related to global risk aversion, the business cycle, and traditional exchange rate fundamentals.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8503
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8503.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8503
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.

Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Xavier Gabaix & Samuel Fraiberg & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdehlha & Emmanuel Farhi, 2010. "Crash Risk in Currency Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Cumby, Robert E., 1988. "Is it risk? : Explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 279-299, September.
  4. Ahn, Dong-Hyun, 2004. "Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 69-102, March.
  5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. Geert Bekaert, 1994. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
  8. Nick Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," 2008 Meeting Papers 711, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  10. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, 08.
  11. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Anderson, Bing & Hammond, Peter J. & Ramezani, Cyrus A., 2010. "Affine Models of the Joint Dynamics of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1341-1365, October.
  13. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  14. Ruslan Bikbov & Mikhail Chernov, 2011. "Yield Curve and Volatility: Lessons from Eurodollar Futures and Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 66-105, Winter.
  15. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
  16. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
  17. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  18. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
  19. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Georg Mosburger & Paul Schneider, 2005. "Modelling International Bond Markets with Affine Term Structure Models," Finance 0509003, EconWPA.
  21. Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1996. "Equilibrium Valuation of Foreign Exchange Claims," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm79, Yale School of Management.
  22. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
  23. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," 2006 Meeting Papers 872, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  24. Bekaert, G.R.J. & Hodrick, R. & Marshall, D., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Discussion Paper 1997-07, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  25. Marc Hallin & Davy Paindaveine & Miroslav Šiman, 2010. "Multivariate quantiles and multiple-output regression quantiles: From L1 optimization to halfspace depth," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/127979, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  26. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," Working Paper Series rwp09-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  27. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2010. "Spot and Forward Volatility in Foreign Exchange," CEPR Discussion Papers 7893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Robert Serfling, 2002. "Quantile functions for multivariate analysis: approaches and applications," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 56(2), pages 214-232.
  29. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
  31. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  32. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2006. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 753-795.
  33. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  34. Ruslan Bikbov & Mikhail Chernov, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility in Affine Models: Evidence from Eurodollar Futures and Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(8), pages 1292-1305, August.
  35. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  36. Duffee, Gregory R., 2006. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 507-536, March.
  37. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1982. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  39. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  40. Gregory R. Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the Term Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
  41. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  42. repec:hal:journl:peer-00732517 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  44. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  45. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
  46. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
  47. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
  48. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
  49. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2007. "An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
  51. Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, 04.
  52. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  53. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
  54. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "The Cross-Section of Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 11104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
  56. Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
  57. Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "An Admissible Affine Model for Joint Term Structure Dynamics of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie001, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
  58. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, 06.
  60. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  61. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
  62. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1992. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 92-18b, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  63. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
  64. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2004. "Exchange rates and interest rates: can term structure models explain currency movements?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1595-1624, June.
  65. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  66. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Christopher S. Jones, 2008. "Identification of Maximal Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 743-795, 04.
  67. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
  68. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.