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Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates

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  • Ahn, Dong-Hyun

Abstract

This paper studies a multi-factor, two-country term structure and exchange rate model when a diversification effect for an international bond portfolio is expected. It shows that the diversification gain calls upon certain restrictions on the process of the stochastic discount factor in a factor-structured economy. Existence of local factors is shown to be a necessary condition for the gains from investing in foreign bonds. Further, the exchange rate risk premia are shown to be a function of the differentials of the risk premia of the factors in bond returns. Empirical results reveal the tendency for investors to respond sensitively to rare shocks, which is shown to be a potential solution to the forward premium puzzle.

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  • Ahn, Dong-Hyun, 2004. "Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 69-102, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:39:y:2004:i:01:p:69-102_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    2. Conway, Patrick, 2012. "The exchange rate as nominal anchor: A test for Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 438-456.
    3. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Claudio Tapia, 2012. "Credit Spreads in Illiquid Markets: Model and Implementation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 53-72, November.
    4. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
    5. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2015. "Exchange rates and monetary policy," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Chang, Sanders S., 2013. "Can cross-country portfolio rebalancing give rise to forward bias in FX markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1079-1096.
    7. S. Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
    8. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    9. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
    10. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 208-222.
    11. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2006. "Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
    12. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Claudio Tapia, 2012. "Credit Spreads in Illiquid Markets: Model and Implementation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 53-72, November.
    13. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
    14. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2007. "US-Swiss term structures and exchange rate dynamics," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 270-288.
    15. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2016. "Exchange rates and the yield curve," Working Papers 16-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
    17. Spencer, Peter & Liu, Zhuoshi, 2010. "An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 667-680, March.
    18. Ding, Liang, 2012. "The Thursday effect of the forward premium puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 302-318.
    19. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sercu, Piet & Vandebroek, Martina & Wu, Xueping, 2008. "Is the forward bias economically small? Evidence from European rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1284-1302, December.
    21. Georg Mosburger & Paul Schneider, 2005. "Modelling International Bond Markets with Affine Term Structure Models," Finance 0509003, EconWPA.
    22. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:88-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Sen Dong, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rates:A Structural VAR Identified by No Arbitrage," 2006 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.

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