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The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our empirical analysis shows that imposing the Nelson-Siegel structure on this canonical representation greatly improves its empirical tractability; furthermore, we find that improvements in predictive performance are achieved from the imposition of absence of arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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