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Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models

  • Marco Shinobu Matsumura
  • Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira
  • José Valentim Machado Vicente

In this work we compare the interest rate forecasting performance using a broad class of linear models. The models are estimated through a MCMC procedure with data from the US and Brazilian markets. We show that a simple parametric specification has the best predictive power, but it does not outperform the random walk. We also find that macroeconomic variables and no-arbitrage conditions have little effect to improve the out-of-sample fit, while a financial variable (stock index) increases the forecasting accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps223.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 223.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:223
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  14. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Almeida, Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de & Vicente, José Valentim M., 2007. "The Role of No-Arbitrage on Forecasting: Lessons from a Parametric Term Structure Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 657, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  18. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  19. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
  20. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
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