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Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

Abstract

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson-Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li (2006). Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior and appear accurate at long horizons when compared to different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy makers, portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(08)00040-X
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 490-497

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:3:p:490-497
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  6. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  7. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO5, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
  9. Wu, Tao, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1847-1875, October.
  10. Bidarkota, Prasad V., 1998. "The comparative forecast performance of univariate and multivariate models: an application to real interest rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 457-468, December.
  11. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
  12. Caio Ibsen R. Almeida & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Term Structure Movements Implicit in Option Prices," Working Papers Series 128, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  14. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  15. Damir Filipovic, 2001. "A general characterization of one factor affine term structure models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 389-412.
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Cited by:

  1. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Marco Shinobu Matsumura & Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models," Working Papers Series 223, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
  5. Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro & Alexandre B. Sollaci, 2011. "Forecasting the Yield Curve for the Euro Region," Working Papers Series 247, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Dauwe, Alexander & Moura, Marcelo L., 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Insper Working Papers wpe_233, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  7. Rodrigo Cabral & Richard Munclinger & Luiz Alves & Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure; Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 11/113, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ricardo Schechtman, 2007. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," Working Papers Series 149, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Almeida, Caio & Gomes, Romeu & Leite, André & Vicente, José, 2008. "Movimentos da Estrutura a Termo e Critérios de Minimização do Erro de Previsão em um Modelo Paramétrico Exponencial," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(4), December.

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