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The comparative forecast performance of univariate and multivariate models: an application to real interest rate forecasting

  • Bidarkota, Prasad V.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-3V54624-3/2/e7ca93e92bf5d9fe7bc8e80f2c967bbf
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 14 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 457-468

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:4:p:457-468
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  3. Kim, C.J., 1992. "Unobserved-Component Time-Series Models with Markov- Switching Heteroskedasticity: Changes in Regimes and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Papers 92-1, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  4. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
  5. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
  6. Rose, David E., 1977. "Forecasting aggregates of independent Arima processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-345, May.
  7. Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990. "Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  9. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1985. "The joint asymptotic distribution of multistep prediction errors of estimated vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 103-106.
  11. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-43, July.
  12. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
  13. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
  14. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  15. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  16. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August.
  17. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  18. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 201-14, July.
  19. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Staff Report 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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