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Global macro risks in currency excess returns

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  • Berg, Kimberly A.
  • Mark, Nelson C.

Abstract

We study the cross-sectional variation of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global macroeconomic fundamental risk. The risk factor is the cross-country high-minus-low conditional skewness of the unemployment rate gap. It gives a measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty and is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the high-minus-low skewness of the unemployment rate gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity, and inequality of economic performance across countries.

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  • Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:300-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.11.011
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    6. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
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    9. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    10. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Michael Melvin & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 145-168, February.
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    13. Fernandez, Julian, 2020. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Interest Rate Parity," MPRA Paper 116010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2022.
    14. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency excess returns; Beta-risk; Carry trade; Global macro risk; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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