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Global macro risks in currency excess returns

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  • Berg, Kimberly A.
  • Mark, Nelson C.

Abstract

We study the cross-sectional variation of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global macroeconomic fundamental risk. The risk factor is the cross-country high-minus-low conditional skewness of the unemployment rate gap. It gives a measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty and is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the high-minus-low skewness of the unemployment rate gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity, and inequality of economic performance across countries.

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  • Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:300-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.11.011
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    1. Constantin Bürgi & Vida Bobic & Min Wu, 2019. "Net Capital Flows and Portfolio Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 7883, CESifo.
    2. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Riccardo Colacito & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2019. "Business Cycles and Currency Returns," NBER Working Papers 26299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    5. Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Fintech and banking: What do we know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
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    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Redux: Non- Uniform Effects," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    8. Dalton, Gordon & Bardócz, Tamás & Blanch, Mike & Campbell, David & Johnson, Kate & Lawrence, Gareth & Lilas, Theodore & Friis-Madsen, Erik & Neumann, Frank & Nikitas, Nikitakos & Ortega, Saul Torres &, 2019. "Feasibility of investment in Blue Growth multiple-use of space and multi-use platform projects; results of a novel assessment approach and case studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 338-359.
    9. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    10. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    11. Nucera, Federico, 2017. "Unemployment fluctuations and the predictability of currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 88-106.
    12. Ismailov, Adilzhan & Rossi, Barbara, 2018. "Uncertainty and deviations from uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 242-259.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency excess returns; Beta-risk; Carry trade; Global macro risk; Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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