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The quanto theory of exchange rates

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  • Kremens, Lukas
  • Martin, Ian

Abstract

We present a new identity that relates expected exchange rate appreciation to a risk-neutral covariance term, and use it to motivate a currency forecasting variable based on the prices of quanto index contracts. We show via panel regressions that the quanto forecast variable is an economically and statistically significant predictor of currency appreciation and of excess returns on currency trades. Out of sample, the quanto variable outperforms predictions based on uncovered interest parity, on purchasing power parity, and on a random walk as a forecaster of differential (dollar-neutral) currency appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kremens, Lukas & Martin, Ian, 2019. "The quanto theory of exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 89839, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:89839
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/89839/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    3. Augustin, Patrick & Chernov, Mikhail & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongo, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Lilley, Andrew & Maggiori, Matteo & Neiman, Brent & Schreger, Jesse, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," CEPR Discussion Papers 13869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Quantile Approach to Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org.
    7. Martin, Ian W. R. & Ross, Stephen A., 2019. "Notes on the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 689-702.
    8. Mikhail Chernov & Drew D. Creal & Peter Hördahl, 2020. "Sovereign Credit and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Local Currency Bonds," NBER Working Papers 27500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Martin, Ian, 2018. "Options and the Gamma Knife," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88077, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
    11. Gao, Can & Martin, Ian, 2019. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 13454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Jun Wei, 2020. "Optimal Combination of Currency Assets and Algorithm Simulation under Exchange Rate Risk," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, November.
    13. Edouard Djeutem & Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2018. "Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns," Staff Working Papers 18-22, Bank of Canada.
    14. Dennij Mandeij, 2020. "Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Rupiah Against US Dollar and its Volatility: Application of Asset Approach," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 6(6), pages 323-336.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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