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Sovereign credit risk and exchange rates: Evidence from CDS quanto spreads

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  • Augustin, Patrick
  • Chernov, Mikhail
  • Song, Dongho

Abstract

Sovereign CDS quanto spreads - the difference between CDS premiums denominated in U.S. dollars and a foreign currency - tell us how financial markets view the interaction between a country's likelihood of default and associated currency devaluations (the Twin Ds). A noarbitrage model applied to the term structure of quanto spreads can isolate the interaction between the Twin Ds and gauge the associated risk premiums. We study countries in the Eurozone because their quanto spreads pertain to the same exchange rate and monetary policy, allowing us to link cross-sectional variation in their term structures to cross-country differences in fiscal policies. The ratio of the risk-adjusted to the true default intensities is 2, on average. Conditional on the occurrence of default, the true and risk-adjusted 1-week probabilities of devaluation are 5% and 77%, respectively. The risk premium for the euro devaluation in case of default exceeds the regular currency premium by up to 0.3% per week.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustin, Patrick & Chernov, Mikhail & Song, Dongho, 2018. "Sovereign credit risk and exchange rates: Evidence from CDS quanto spreads," CEPR Discussion Papers 12857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12857
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
    2. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide & Uno, Jun, 2018. "Central bank-driven mispricing," SAFE Working Paper Series 226, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    3. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer & Jimmy Shek, 2018. "Does Sovereign Risk in Local and Foreign Currency Differ?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. repec:eee:ecolet:v:174:y:2019:i:c:p:173-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. A. Itkin & V. Shcherbakov & A. Veygman, 2017. "Influence of jump-at-default in IR and FX on Quanto CDS prices," Papers 1711.07133, arXiv.org.
    6. Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Holden, Thomas, 2019. "Quantifying the transmission of European sovereign default risk," EconStor Preprints 193632, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; credit default swaps; credit risk; Exchange Rates; Sovereign debt;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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