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Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling

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  • Monfort, Alain
  • Pegoraro, Fulvio
  • Renne, Jean-Paul
  • Roussellet, Guillaume

Abstract

We build an Affine Term Structure Model that provides non-negative yields at any maturity and that is able to accommodate a short-term rate that stays at the zero lower bound (ZLB) for extended periods of time while longer-term rates feature high volatilities. We introduce these features through a new univariate non-negative affine process called ARG-Zero, and its multivariate affine counterpart (VARG), entailing conditional distributions with zero-point masses. The affine property of this new class of processes implies both explicit bond pricing and quasi-explicit lift-off probability formulas. We provide an empirical application to Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, observed weekly from June 1995 to May 2014 with maturities from six months to ten years. Our four-factor specification is able to closely match yield levels and to capture conditional yield variances.

Suggested Citation

  • Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:201:y:2017:i:2:p:348-366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.08.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4617-4631, September.
    2. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:51:y:2019:i:5:p:1053-1096 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. King, Thomas B., 2016. "Expectation and Duration at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. repec:wly:japmet:v:33:y:2018:i:6:p:763-779 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2016. "The response of euro area sovereign spreads to the ECB unconventional monetary policies," Working Paper Research 309, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
    7. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Dongho Song, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Risk and Exchange Rates: Evidence from CDS Quanto Spreads," NBER Working Papers 24506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:bfr:rueban:2017:52 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:econom:v:201:y:2017:i:2:p:333-347 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:econom:v:201:y:2017:i:2:p:348-366 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andreasen, Martin M & Meldrum, Andrew, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England working papers 550, Bank of England.
    12. S. Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
    13. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    14. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    15. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea, 2015. "A Shadow-Rate Term Structure Model for the Euro Area," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113159, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. repec:bis:bisqtr:1809h is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:wly:japmet:v:33:y:2018:i:7:p:1007-1025 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Bruno Feunou & Cédric Okou, 2018. "Risk‐neutral moment‐based estimation of affine option pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1007-1025, November.
    20. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes : an application to term structure modelling," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 52, november.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; Affine process; Term structure model; Lift-off probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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