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Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Standard Gaussian term structure models have often been criticized for not ruling out negative nominal interest rates, but this flaw has been especially conspicuous with interest rates near zero in many countries. We provide a tractable means to estimate an alternative Gaussian shadow-rate dynamic term structure model that enforces the zero lower bound on bond yields. We illustrate this model by estimating one-, two-, and three-factor shadow-rate models on a sample of positive and near-zero Japanese bond yields. We find that the level of the shadow rate is sensitive to model fit and specification, including the number of factors employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2013-07
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2013-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
    2. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
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    4. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
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    11. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
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